After 10 years of seemingly successful shale drilling why is the oil and gas industry slowing down? Why are stocks performing poorly? Why has capital dried up?
The answer is complex.
There are multiple factors at play.
We will look at overproduction parent-child well spacing issues forecast errors reporting reserves vs drilling locations and a pump-and-dump mentality that has left investors burned.
1.
Overproduction
Hundreds of thousands of long fracked horizontal wells have resulted in an overproduction of oil and gas causing prices to decline.
2.
Parent-Child Well Spacing Problems
Drilling wells too close to each other reduces the amount of oil and gas produced by the parent and all child wells.
Production forecasts were based on tight well spacing.
3.
Reserves vs Drilling Locations
Oil and gas company valuations used to be based on proven and producing reserves.
Now they are based on potential drilling locations which include probable and possible reserves.
4.
Growth vs Profits
Companies focused on growth rather than profits which lead to drilling uneconomic wells and taking on large amounts of debt.
5.
Pump-and-Dump or Find-and-Flip
Rather than playing long-game companies have a defined exit strategy leading to a pump-and-dump mentality.
6.
Lack of Due Diligence
Petroleum and reservoir engineers used to make drilling decisions and lenders only financed what their experts deemed as economic projects.
7.
Capital Drying Up
Lenders particularly those in the North East have been burned by investing in oil and gas without conducting proper due diligence and because of forecast errors.
8.
What Now?
The oil and gas industry is having a Come to Jesus moment and learning that they need to play the long game only drill in economically viable areas secure funding from investors who know the industry and put money back into the ground.
The parent-child well spacing image in the video is from an excellent WSJ article Shale Companies Adding Ever More Wells Threaten Future of U.S.
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Источник: rutube.ru